The second largest party in Nigeria, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is set for its national convention to elect substantive national officers in the next one week. Group Politics Editor, TAIWO ADISA unravels some emerging intrigues, discovering in the process that the convention is more about 2015 and the fate of the party’s leaders, General Muhammadu Buhari and Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
IN February, a group within the All Progressives Congress (APC), under the aegis of Conscience Group (CG), filed a suit at the Federal High Court in Abuja, praying the court to sack the party’s interim national Chairman, Chief Bisi Akande and other interim executive members of the party.
In the thinking of the group, the interim executive committee of the APC had overstayed the stipulated time originally allotted to it. The group, therefore, contended that the party›s constitution empowered the present executive council members to act in the interim for six months after which substantive executives should be put in place by a convention.
Chief Iheke Solomon and Chief Nnamdi Olebara, who filed the suit on behalf of themselves and the Conscience Group, contended that the six-month period provided by the party’s National Executive Committee and the party’s Constitution had lapsed on January 31, 2014, since the executive came into place in August 2013. They claimed that the executive should have vacated the office at the end of January. The suit by the Conscience Group apparently woke the APC to the reality and dynamics of managing a mega party.
The party leaders immediately moved to save the situation by promptly fixing the NEC meeting of the party. The party also endorsed the continuation in office of the Interim Executive Committee members and subsequently fixed the June 2014 date for its national convention.
Since the emergence of the suit, leaders of the APC have come to realise the need to tackle the critical matters on hand. One of the issues is whether to allow members of the Interim National Executive to contest the election into the same offices at the national convention. The other is the zoning formula to be adopted in sharing the offices.
Contrary to the earlier position that only new executive members would be sworn in after the convention, the last NEC meeting of the APC agreed that those currently occupying the offices in interim capacities are also entitled to contest for the posts at the convention.
Though the party had intended to avoid a sit-tight arrangement by initially banning the interim officers, it appears that the reality on hand will likely force a rethink.
Right now, the party is battling with a zoning arrangement which even confounds the core of its inner circles. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had accused the APC of ignoring the religious configuration of the country in the composition of its interim executive which it said was tilted against a particular religion.
That apparently informed the initial position that all members of the Interim Executive will not participate in the national convention that will usher in the substantive national executive of the party.
With the current volte face however, the APC appeared to have compounded its own projections by throwing open the floor for contest by all categories of members. What it means is that all members of the Interim Committee have the chance of retaining their seats.
Besides, there are contending forces already arrayed against one another in the battle for the soul of the APC. There are loyalists of Senator Bola Tinubu, who is seen as the leader of the party. There are also loyalists of General Muhammadu Buhari, another leader of the party.
Other contending forces include the camp of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who defected from the PDP last year. Atiku, like Buhari and Tinubu, also has eyes on the presidential ticket of the party. There is also the group of governors of the APC.
The defection of five PDP governors to the party last November took the number of Progressive Governors Forum to 16. It also means that the governors can no longer play the second fiddle to the leaders, especially Tinubu and Buhari.
Thus, with four camps battling for the control of the APC, the ground is bound to quake. Sources told The Friday Edition that the back and forth on the convention thus far has been informed by the calculations ahead of the convention. The election at the convention is so strategic to the fate of the party and its leaders in 2015, sources have confirmed.
It was gathered that with the different camps having their eyes on the seat of the national chairman of the party, the plot and counter plots have been unfolding under the tables. At a stage, the Tinubu camp which believed it would always control the NEC of the party had its eyes on the former governor of Edo State, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun. Oyegun, from the South-South region, was seen as a candidate who will not unduly rock the boat in view of his experience. Besides, taking the seat of national chairman to the South-South zone will open the room for the South-West to contest the vice presidential slot in 2015.
While the Tinubu camp is also making its calculations, Atiku loyalists also zeroed in on Chief Tom Ikimi as a possible national chairmanship candidate. Ikimi is also from Edo State like Oyegun. But, while the calculation was ongoing, the governors of the party got further emboldened. Away from the usually docile posture they had displayed in the past, the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF), under Chief Rochas Okorocha, the Imo State governor, took on the structure of the party and also projected their own calculations.
The governors are of the view that one of them, who is a former governor of Bayelsa State, Timpre Sylva, should take the slot of national chairman. The governors had, at the NEC meeting of May 22, also shocked the party leaders when they pushed through the name of Governor Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto State as their choice for the chairman of the Convention Committee. That was against the plan by Buhari and Tinubu to make Alhaji Kawu Baraje the convention chairman.
More than anything else, it was learnt that the party has been forced to restrategise in the event of the strong showing by the governors.
A source at the NEC meeting of May described the situation this way:
“During the APC NEC meeting, Tinubu and Buhari had Alhaji Baraje and others in mind as leaders of the National Convention Committee. But most of the governors and NEC members kicked against the interest of the leaders, so both the candidates of Tinubu and Buhari were voted against in favour of Governor Wamakko and Senator Chris Ngige as Secretary.
“As a result of that development, Tinubu and Buhari nearly walked out of the meeting in anger because the outcome of the election was not in favour of their candidates. Most of the APC Governors and NEC members refused to dance to their tune. The duo cannot be slighted by the party so the governors are looking at ways of marrying their independence and at the same time managing the egos of the leaders.
“We understand that Tinubu also has his eyes on the presidential ticket of the party and he would also need the party to survive,” the source said.
The Friday Edition was told that the decisions and intrigues on zoning as well as possible candidates for the different seats of the National Working Committee are largely hinged on the calculations of the different groups ahead of 2015. The belief is that whoever controls the party’s national executive will produce the presidential candidate.
On one hand, the governors are said to be calculating that if one of them gets the chairmanship slot, it will be easy to project one of the governors from the North as presidential candidate, while the governors will seek the blessing of Tinubu and Buhari in 2015.
Unlike Buhari, who is said to lack the capacity to independently source huge election funds, the governors believed that among themselves they could easily raise huge funds to prosecute the election.
That aside, the governors are also said to be planning a situation where a loose zoning arrangement will be put in place and that a zone that produces the national chairman can also produce the vice presidential candidate, if the candidate from that zone is seen to have enough war chest that will help the party’s cause.
Already, some documents flying around in the party indicate that some strategists are raising questions about the possibility of fielding either of Buhari or Atiku as presidential candidate of the party.
A recent meeting of the strategists confirmed to The Friday Edition that movements ahead of 2015 are already afoot and that the series of calculations regarding the convention are all hinged on the 2015 projections.
For instance, a document put together by a strategic group in the APC is currently testing waters with information seeking to knock out Buhari and Atiku from the presidential race, even though it wants the slot retained in the North. The strategic group is said to favour the emergence of one of the Northern governors as the presidential candidate.
Sources had confirmed that the document was first unveiled at a meeting held in Lagos on April 26 and that the group indicated that the duo of Buhari and Atiku might not be electable in 2015.
Sources confirmed that the document, which was circulated at the strategy meeting, was, however, retrieved from all participants, who were only asked to make comments after sighting the document.
It was confirmed that the document had highlighted the party’s chances in the 2015 presidential election and particularly zeroed in on the duo of Buhari and Atiku for in-depth analysis.
The two-page piece titled “Memo to His Excellency, Bola Ahmed Tinubu: 2015, Implications of the Muslim/Muslim Ticket and the Burden of APC Presidential Candidate” was distributed to participants at the Lagos meeting with a view to receiving observations and comments, a source said. It was authoritatively confirmed that the memo indicated the need to intensify the search for a presidential candidate among the governors of the APC from the North, while the duo of Buhari and Atiku should be sidelined.
Other revelations contained in the document include that the issue of a Muslim/Muslim Presidential ticket could negatively affect the party, namely that the party could be sharply divided in the South-West if it adopts a Muslim/Muslim presidential ticket; that fielding a Muslim/Muslim ticket, would make it easier for President Goodluck Jonathan to win the 2015 election; that such a situation would scare away international friends of the party from the United States of America, European Union and the United Kingdom.
The document, according to sources, resolved that the APC should not compare its situation with the 1993 period when Chief MKO Abiola and Alhaji Babagana Kingibe emerged on a Muslim/Muslim presidential ticket.
It was also confirmed that the document x-rayed the chances of General Buhari and concluded that 2015 will be the fourth time he will be seeking the presidential seat.
The caucus was also quoted in the document as saying that if the presidential aspiration of General Buhari is not well-handled, the APC could come out with the worst outcome at the 2015 polls because of the perception about his past role as a rigid military officer. It was also contended that the choice of Buhari would draw a lot of negative media campaign against the party. This is in view of his frequently-talked-about human right credential and antecedent as Head of State, notwithstanding claims of his perceived uprightness, and trustworthiness. The document also named perceived rigid religious outlook of the General as one of his liabilities.
According to the strategic document, Atiku was also x-rayed and seen as an easy prey for Jonathan on the 2015 election. A source told The Friday Edition that the APC strategists believed that even though Atiku is seen as a “deep pocket”, the alleged suspicion the political class have of him as well as the belief that the international community, especially the USA, is wary of him could work against him.
The document, therefore, canvassed that the APC should settle for presidential hopeful among the APC governors in the North. The strategists were therefore said to have written that the APC should favour a Northern presidential candidate for the party with a Christian Southerner running-mate.
In view of the above revelations, another source told The Friday Edition that a group of APC leaders have started lobbying other leaders in order to forestall the acclaimed Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket for the party in 2015.
A source said last week that the dust surrounding a possible all Muslims ticket and that the party is further rearing its head, following indication that a group of party members led by a southern governor is moving round to thwart the agenda.
Said the source in the know: “A governor from one of the Southern states is already in talks with some party members from the North and they plan to meet with General Buhari whom they intend to lobby to persuade Tinubu to drop the idea of a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket in 2015.
“The essence of the scheming is that Tinubu will be persuaded after the forthcoming national convention slated for 13th and 14th June, to shift his attention to the Senate Presidency, a position seen as very powerful in government.
“That seat is even more powerful than the vice president’s position and it would enable the APC avoid the Muslim-Muslim ticket thing. Those behind this are also said to be plotting seriously to ensure the emergence of a defected PDP member from the South-South to emerge as the national chairman. He is seen as the rightful person to occupy the National Chairmanship position. With him we can fly,” the source said.
With the scheming and counter plots unfolding by the day, the outcome of the APC convention is sure to bring some interesting dimensions. Whichever group succeeds in outwitting the other, the battle for 2015 has surely begun.
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